# Ordered Regime Choice (Sequential Logit): Demographics → Regime

| Variable | P(≥2): Z | P(≥3): Z | P(≥2): Age | P(≥3): Age |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -0.6498*** | -0.4052*** | | |
| | (0.2042) | (0.0941) | | |
| Z_2 | 0.0864*** | 0.0529*** | | |
| | (0.0307) | (0.0141) | | |
| Z_3 | -0.0031** | -0.0019*** | | |
| | (0.0012) | (0.0006) | | |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.0050*** | -0.0009** | 0.0046*** | -0.0011** |
| | (0.0009) | (0.0005) | (0.0009) | (0.0005) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.0203*** | -0.0120*** | -0.0228*** | -0.0134*** |
| | (0.0054) | (0.0023) | (0.0054) | (0.0025) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0021** | -0.0014*** | -0.0026*** | -0.0016*** |
| | (0.0009) | (0.0004) | (0.0009) | (0.0004) |
| kaopen | -0.0047 | -0.0050*** | 0.0003 | -0.0038** |
| | (0.0036) | (0.0018) | (0.0035) | (0.0018) |
| old_dep | | | 0.0324 | 0.1596*** |
| | | | (0.0894) | (0.0469) |
| youth_dep | | | 0.0399 | 0.0495*** |
| | | | (0.0292) | (0.0148) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 6002 | 6002 | 6002 | 6002 |
| R² | 0.0155 | 0.0621 | 0.0089 | 0.0409 |
| Countries | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 |

*Standard errors in parentheses. Logit columns report marginal effects at means.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*